Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 13.195311 15.109089 17.174561 19.565864 22.254442 25.180065 28.600848
2025-02-16 10.283728 12.852653 15.844526 19.571816 24.075178 29.323855 35.886846
2025-02-23 8.763521 11.590021 15.046530 19.557286 25.258101 32.190245 41.221036
2025-03-02 7.715937 10.730869 14.580378 19.812557 26.688581 35.360562 47.060470
2025-03-09 6.835894 9.938412 14.052706 19.846484 27.722016 37.970415 52.215876
2025-03-16 6.039816 9.152203 13.427337 19.647527 28.368076 40.043741 56.716774
2025-03-23 5.498209 8.651580 13.123344 19.823920 29.481408 42.743093 62.138401
2025-03-30 5.167761 8.415642 13.156579 20.451521 31.229649 46.368205 68.982494
2025-04-06 4.666014 7.865846 12.674126 20.271149 31.775154 48.297446 73.498075
2025-04-13 4.030106 7.040903 11.702212 19.269240 31.018318 48.277748 75.161146
2025-04-20 3.802368 6.846827 11.680330 19.707127 32.433070 51.481115 81.670020
2025-04-27 3.584999 6.647046 11.627905 20.081776 33.755053 54.589409 88.157692
2025-05-04 3.271662 6.261266 11.253288 19.926833 34.257910 56.513103 93.002418
2025-05-11 2.967606 5.862535 10.824514 19.648806 34.539849 58.101041 97.399426
2025-05-18 2.758268 5.612070 10.623374 19.728493 35.393661 60.606642 103.321370
2025-05-25 2.592102 5.424824 10.515164 19.953927 36.492753 63.543250 110.046860
2025-06-01 2.414160 5.197289 10.315078 19.998708 37.276754 65.988328 116.063904
2025-06-08 2.218142 4.914863 9.991164 19.794856 37.609156 67.687022 120.907220
2025-06-15 2.090604 4.756706 9.884224 19.973626 38.613884 70.543961 127.782547
2025-06-22 2.028842 4.727555 10.018623 20.605100 40.454783 74.894960 137.349445
2025-06-29 1.875946 4.491894 9.734234 20.423638 40.803620 76.677806 142.581215
2025-07-06 1.647027 4.068987 9.045742 19.414855 39.562226 75.610453 142.808427
2025-07-13 1.587597 4.014938 9.096781 19.855745 41.055535 79.445874 151.782883